When Will SpaceX and Blue Origin Land Astronauts on the Moon?

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NASA's ambitious Artemis program aims to return astronauts to the lunar surface by the late 2020s, but major questions remain about whether SpaceX and Blue Origin will deliver their moon landers on schedule. On This Week in Space, hosts Rod Pyle, Tariq Malik, and guest Mike Wall break down the true state of Artemis lander development and why the timeline keeps slipping.

Will Artemis 4 Make Its Scheduled Moon Landing?

Artemis 4 is officially targeting a 2028 moon landing, but delays are mounting. Both SpaceX and Blue Origin are developing human landing systems (HLS) for NASA, but neither has flown a crewed or uncrewed lunar mission yet. According to Mike Wall, schedules have shifted multiple times, and much hinges on crucial tests, regulatory review, and actual hardware readiness.

The episode reveals that although Blue Origin's Blue Moon Mark 1 robotic lander might launch for a test as early as late this year, that timetable is threatened by a failed New Glenn launch and an ongoing Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) investigation. SpaceX's Starship, designed originally for Mars, still needs to prove its technologies for the moon—including life support, a massive crew elevator, and especially in-orbit refueling.

How Do the New Artemis Landers Compare to Apollo?

The Artemis landers are major upgrades compared to Apollo's lunar module. SpaceX's Starship is a towering 52 meters (170 feet) tall and could offer over 600 cubic meters of internal volume—vastly outscaling previous moon vehicles. Blue Origin's Blue Moon is smaller but still far more advanced than Apollo's spartan lunar module.

However, these larger designs come with complex challenges. For example, the Starship lander requires a functioning elevator to lower astronauts to the lunar surface, posing serious engineering questions about reliability. Blue Moon's two-stage system is more conservative, reminiscent of a supersized Apollo lander, but operational details—including refueling and modular assembly—are still emerging.

What's Causing Artemis Delays?

Hardware Readiness: Both SpaceX and Blue Origin must complete critical test flights—uncrewed and eventually crewed. Key life support and safety systems aren't yet fully demonstrated.
Refueling Logistics: Starship's mission profile requires multiple tanker launches to transfer propellant in orbit, a process that has never been attempted at this scale. Blue Moon, likewise, expects to need in-space refueling for its crewed missions.
Regulatory & Technical Setbacks: The New Glenn rocket's recent mishap delays Blue Origin's testing schedule, pending FAA review. SpaceX still needs to validate orbital propellant transfer and crew operations.
Evolving Mission Architecture: Originally, Artemis 3 was intended as a lunar landing. Now, the mission is scheduled to serve as an in-orbit docking demonstration with the HLS landers. The removal of the Gateway lunar station from initial missions adds further uncertainty.

What Does This Mean for Lunar Exploration?

International competition is ramping up. China's lunar lander program is accelerating and could reach the moon before 2030. NASA and its contractors are under pressure not only to deliver, but to secure legal and commercial footholds on the lunar surface before other nations set terms.

In the meantime, a growing ecosystem of commercial robotic landers (by Firefly Aerospace and Intuitive Machines, among others) is paving the way by delivering scientific payloads and testing critical technologies. The episode emphasizes that whatever happens with Artemis 3, public interest and political urgency remain high, and the next year will be pivotal for moon mission progress.

Key Takeaways

NASA's Artemis 3 target date is now late 2027, but uncertainties abound.
Neither SpaceX's nor Blue Origin's human lunar landers have reached the moon yet, crewed or uncrewed.
Both companies must still demonstrate complex new systems—especially orbital refueling and life support.
Blue Origin's test schedule is delayed by a failed New Glenn launch and FAA review.
Artemis mission profiles continue to evolve; Artemis 3 will focus on docking demonstrations in Earth orbit.
The Artemis hardware is far larger and more complex than Apollo, offering more capacity but greater technical hurdles.
International pressure, particularly from China, is pushing NASA to accelerate.
The lunar legal/regulatory environment is unclear; who establishes norms will shape future exploration.

The Bottom Line

The race to return astronauts to the moon is more complicated than headlines suggest. According to Mike Wall on This Week in Space, despite the recent success of Artemis II and White House support, technical, regulatory, and competitive hurdles make 2028 an ambitious target for a crewed lunar landing. The next few years will reveal whether NASA, SpaceX, and Blue Origin can finally turn bold promises into footprints on the lunar south pole.